As the planet continues to grapple with the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, full recovery at a global scale is still not in sight, nor is it guaranteed. Variations and mutations continue to emerge, leading to hotspots and ‘breakthrough’ infections of those already vaccinated. The emergence of this once-in-a-century global pandemic highlights how we continue to be susceptible to massive external shocks and ‘black swan’ events. What is clear is that the role of digital technologies and digital infrastructure is as important as ever in building resilience and response capabilities as discussed below and in Chapter 2. And while the future is yet to be written, we can identify major trends related to broadband and digital infrastructure that the pandemic has either highlighted or heightened, particularly in the case of major drivers of change.

The centrality of connectivity has been crystalized in public life

The shutdowns around the world in 2020, with some continuing in 2021, highlighted the need for robust communications infrastructure, particularly broadband, to continue economic and social activities. The International Labour Organization (ILO) estimates that in 2020 the world lost 8.8 per cent of global working hours (compared to previous years), with an equivalence of 255 million full-time jobs (based on a 48-hour work week). This figure represents nearly four times the losses incurred during the global financial crisis of 2008.

The ability for workers to continue employment during the pandemic differed significantly on the basis of the nature of the employment (for example between informal in-person, manufacturing, services or knowledge activities, among others) and the robustness of the communications infrastructure workers have access to. In the United States, nearly half of the US labour force moved to working remotely from home during the peak of the crisis, up from 15 per cent previously. Across a range of countries, the share of previously employed individuals who were able to continue working remotely from home or had to stop working completely differed widely. And more generally, 83 per cent of smartphone users claim that ICT helped them a great deal in coping during COVID-19 imposed lockdowns. In many countries, constraints to basic access to Internet or ownership of computers exert a gating constraint to remote work opportunities in times of crisis.

While much economic, learning and even healthcare activity was able to shift online, the pandemic highlighted the importance of effective and robust digital infrastructure.

This realization has led to significant immediate and long-term policy responses by governments, and investments by commercial and other entities. Chapter 2 provides much detail on the range of policy responses, including some of the 480+ ICT policy actions tracked in the REG4COVID ITU tracker alone, across various dimensions including emergency telecommunications, accessibility, affordability, broadband availability, etc.

ICT Policy Responses to COVID-19, worldwide and by region (ITU REG4COVID)

Source: ITU. 2021. REG4COVID database

While many of these measures were temporary, the impact of COVID-19 on the nature of remote-based engagements (be it economic activity, learning, medical, or entertainment-focused, among other activities) may become much more permanent as more individuals transition more of their activities online and new users join the digital economy. Historically, the adoption and utilization of the Internet by new users, as well as existing users who upgrade to higher speed connections, demonstrate a virtuous circle of ever-increasing extensive and intensive data use (more users, and more data per user). Since 2000, Internet users have increased ten-fold from around 400 million users to more than 4 billion users today. More intensive data uses are leading to different behaviours and eventually life outcomes. For example, Ericsson’s recent ConsumerLab report, the largest consumer report of its kind, shows that 5G users spend two hours more per week on cloud gaming, one hour more on AR apps and one hour more consuming live broadcasts compared to 4G LTE users. Globally, total data consumption has increased 283-fold from 0.2 exabytes per month in 2011, to 166 exabytes in 2021.

A lingering digital divide remains, exacerbated by the pandemic

While overall and individual data consumption increased during the pandemic, it remains to be seen what the net effect on total users will be; while the crisis has brought many new users online, others have had to limit or stop their access because of the economic impact to income and affordability that most affects populations that use the Internet the least. As the world shifted to online engagement in the second quarter of 2020, Internet traffic growth significantly outpaced pre-COVID-19 era forecasts: average traffic in 2020 grew by 48 per cent while global peak traffic grew by 47 per cent, compared to forecasts of average annual growth between 2016 and 2020 of 30 per cent. Globally, last year consumers’ use of fixed broadband increased by an average of two and a half hours per day, and on mobile by one hour. Similarly, 60 per cent of white-collar workers increased their use of video calls. In the US and Europe in particular, traffic on broadband networks increased 51 per cent because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and average per-subscriber (or household) usage increased from 344 GB per subscriber in Q4 of 2019 to 482.6 GB per month in Q4 of 2020, an increase of 40 per cent.

The digital divide exacerbates the negative social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and threatens to exacerbate overall divides. For example, learners at all ages and levels were, and in many countries still continue to be, significantly affected by the pandemic in part due to a lack of remote learning ability. School closures occurred across 190 countries, impacting more than 91 per cent of students worldwide at an estimate of 1.6 billion children and young people. At least 31 per cent of schoolchildren worldwide (463 million) cannot access distance education content via Internet access or broadcast technologies for a range of reasons including a lack of necessary technologies, among others.

And the nature of COVID-19 itself, leading to contagion based on direct exposure and physical proximity to infected individuals, further stresses the need to be able to treat patients of all kinds (with COVID-19 and with other ailments) safely at a distance through telemedicine options. But even today, limited broadband adoption not only hampers future development and resilience, it is also impacting COVID-19 response activities. For example, in India, where a significant resurgence of COVID-19 swept across the country in April and May 2021, the government imposed a requirement that by May 1, citizens between the age of 18 and 45 had to register in advance for vaccination online and could not walk-in for vaccination. However, nearly 50 per cent of the population does not have access to the Internet.

Even within developed countries, the pandemic has exposed digital divides between populations, communities and ethnic groups, and has been a wake-up call that efforts to simply apply more infrastructure and more technology at cheaper prices do not fully address systemic differences between peoples. More targeted interventions that are cognizant of social inequalities, and the complexities of digital disparities are required.

Shifting from network expansion to network densification

Global networks (terrestrial, space and undersea) across various technologies and dimensions combine to reach and cover every part of the world; the challenge now is ensuring sufficient capacity, competition, and affordability while continuing to attract sustainable investments into networks, services, technologies and capacities. According to mobile network carriers, only 7 per cent of the world’s total population reside in geographic areas where they cannot provide mobile Internet connectivity (at least 3G data service). These 570 million people outside of at least 3G cellular coverage may still have some connectivity via 2G for voice and basic text message functionality, though 2G and 3G services are now starting to be shut down in order to re-farm spectrum for 5G, and in some cases for 4G in emerging markets. These transitions will have to be managed carefully as significant numbers of mobile users around the world, in developing as well as developed countries, continue to use 2G and 3G devices for a wide range of reasons, including affordability, limited digital skills and familiarity, as well as limits to service options. Shutdowns will force many of these users to transition and many may not be ready to do so. For example, in the United States, estimates range between 13 to 17 per cent of mobile subscribers still relying on 2G and 3G services, which amounts to a significant share of the subscriber base. Technology neutral spectrum regulations are key to enable mobile operators to smoothly transition users to new generation networks, increasing network capacity but avoiding shutting down old networks that may affect those who cannot afford new devices.

While 85 per cent of the world’s population are already covered by 4G networks, nearly half of them are still offline, in part because of the relatively high price of Internet access (though some geographies and populations remain economically unviable and governments and industry players continue to work together to find ways to ensure digital inclusion). Building broadband connectivity on top of existing mobile broadband infrastructure is a fast and cost-efficient option to bridge the digital divide.

Mobile networks are increasingly being used to provide broadband services for homes and business, commonly referred to as fixed wireless access (FWA). FWA adoption has increased significantly in recent years, from 100 to 224 out of 311 communication service providers (CSPs) in over 100 countries. Various factors explain such adoption growth, including technological improvements in 4G and 5G (e.g. massive MIMO), additional spectrum bands (e.g. sub-6GHz TDD and millimeter wave), broad 3GPP FWA consumer premise equipment (CPE) ecosystem (more than 600 LTE CPEs and more than 100 5G CPEs) and easy of deployment leveraging existing mobile network sites. Converged operators use FWA as a complement to fibre in particular in areas with low population density (e.g. rural areas and suburbs), where fibre deployments are more costly.

Satellite technology provides coverage over every human-inhabited square kilometre on the planet. At the end of 2020, there were roughly 3 372 active satellites in orbit around the Earth and 1 819 were expressly used for communications purposes. Of these, the satellites in geosynchronous geostationary orbits (GEO) at 35 786 kilometres above the Earth’s surface are able to cover such large swaths of the planet that in theory only three or so GEOs in a constellation can already provide global network coverage. A fast-emerging trend in satellite connectivity has been the deployment not only of next generation high throughput satellites (HTS) and very high throughput satellites (VHTS) into GEO, but also the use of medium Earth orbit (MEO) and low Earth orbit (LEO) altitudes to provide connectivity with lower latency. These technology advancements dramatically increase the amount of broadband capacity available through satellite transponders. Some estimates suggest that satellite connectivity may be well suited for upwards of 697 million people around the world based on their location and other factors.

Legacy technologies such as DSL continue to be used and experience speed upgrades. In developed markets, DSL remains one of the most dominant fixed-access technologies, such as in the EU-28, passing over 90 per cent of homes with subscriptions levels stable between 2018 and 2019. VDSL, or very high-speed DSL, offering speeds up to 52 Mbps, is available in nearly 60 per cent of EU households and the next generation version, VDSL 2 Vectoring, was available to over 28 per cent of households as of June 2019. Because of legacy copper network infrastructure and high population density, VSDL coverage is, in fact, one of the most rapidly expanding fixed broadband technologies in rural areas of the EU. The G.Fast version of DSL, released in 2018, can reach speeds of up to 1 Gbps on legacy technology (see Figure 5). However, there are important exceptions. In Europe, Spain stands out for its broadband coverage in rural areas. As of 2020, 100 Mbps coverage reaches 63 per cent of the population. If 85 per cent of the total Spanish population has fibre optic coverage, 60 per cent of the population living in rural areas has access to broadband via FTTH.

Undersea and terrestrial fibre deployments continue to expand at breakneck pace There are currently approximately 426 submarine cables in use around the world as of early 2021, with a total of around 1.3 million kilometres connecting nearly 100 countries. Recent announcements for additional links include the planned Echo and Bifrost undersea cables connecting the Asia-Pacific region (particularly Singapore and Indonesia) with North America, spanning 15 000 kilometres and increasing overall transpacific capacity by 70 per cent with estimated completion in 2023 (Echo) and 2024 (Bifrost). While capacity is being added on by major transoceanic routes even connecting remote islands, even more far-flung locations are being connected by fibre for the first time, such as the Galapagos Islands, as well as in-land up-river locales getting connected via submarine fibre such as the northern reaches of the Amazon River basin. Terrestrial investments in fibre continue at an even faster pace, particularly as fibre optic cable still provides the largest maximum capacity as an access and backhaul technology compared to other wired and wireless options. In Africa alone, the World Bank/IFC estimate a total of 1.1 million kilometres of fibre optic cable infrastructure, with roughly 50 per cent of the fiber deployed by mobile network operators (MNOs) while 40 per cent is publicly owned, including by government networks, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and utilities. In the US alone, fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) initiatives are dramatically increasing with investment in the next five years forecasted to be twice that of the previous five years. Meanwhile, in Europe, FTTH deployment is unequal, although some of the big countries such as Spain and France are at the forefront of coverage extension, with 62.6 per cent and 35 per cent, respectively.

4G/LTE now accounts for more than 50 per cent of total mobile connections globally and over 85 per cent of the world’s population. And beyond planet Earth, the next stop in technology expansion include plans by Nokia and NASA for LTE to be utilized for connectivity on the Earth’s Moon. 4G adoption in LMICs has occurred at a quicker pace than 3G, taking seven years for 4G to reach 80 per cent coverage versus ten years for 3G. Some geographies in the world, however, predominately still utilize older generations of cellular technology such as in the African region where the majority of mobile connections are still using 2G. By 2026, in terms of mobile subscriptions by technology generation across Sub-Saharan Africa, 7 per cent will be 5G, 28 per cent 4G, 41 per cent 3G, and 24 per cent 2G.

5G expansion and deployments continue with concurrent handsets adoption and the introduction of applications and services that benefit from the features of the IMT-2020 standard. As of April 2021, 162 operators across 68 countries have launched 3GPP-compliant 5G services (either mobile broadband or, fixed wireless access (FWA)), out of a total of 435 operators in 133 countries that are more broadly investing in 5G with trials, license acquisition, plans, network deployments and launches. In terms of 5G devices, there have been at least 703 announced 5G devices coming to market, 431 of which are commercially available. These include 351 mobile phones, and shipments of 5G smartphones have increased dramatically in 2021, with Q1 2021 5G smartphone shipments increasing globally 458 per cent year on year to 133.9 million from 24 million in Q1 2020, due in part to significant demand in China, and global demand for the Apple iPhone as well as value-priced Android models.

It is also important to note in the overall context and trend of network expansion and network densification that in many cases, these various technologies (wireless, wired, and satellite) are more complementary rather than in direct competition, as connectivity has become so pervasive to daily life there is a plethora of needs, demands, constraints, and use cases for which each technology and service may be best fit (for example indoor versus outdoor, local area versus wide area, and in last mile versus backhaul). And though 5G is still in early stages of deployment, work is already being done on setting the policy and technical foundations for 6G with the launch of the Next G Alliance and the European Commission’s 6G research initiative, project Hexa-X.