For this publication, regional and global aggregates up to 2022 were calculated using data supplied by Member States to ITU, supplemented by ITU estimates. Aggregates can differ from those produced for previous editions of Facts and Figures, because of new or revised data submitted by Member States. Except for the price data, all 2023 aggregates are estimates computed by ITU, based on the methodology described below. For more detailed information, please refer to estimation methods for selected ICT indicators.
The percentage of the population covered by a mobile signal (2G/3G/4G/5G and above) refers to the percentage of inhabitants who have such coverage, regardless of whether they use the service. The indicator thus measures the availability of mobile cellular services, not the actual level of use or subscriptions. It is differentiated by urban and rural areas.
The data for this indicator are generally provided in aggregate form (urban and rural). As with many indicators, ITU collects the data from telecommunication operators, telecommunication/ICT regulators and national ministries. This information is widely available for both developed and developing countries. To fill the data gaps for countries that do not submit data, two estimation methods are used: estimation using published data, and if this is not successful, estimation using trends.
Estimation using published data
Data on network coverage are sometimes made publicly available in annual reports and publications and/or on the website of regulators and/or operators. This process involves the following steps:
Based on this information, it may be possible to estimate the total percentage of the population covered by a telecommunication network.
Estimation using trends
When data are not publicly available, estimates may be made by analysing trends from the previous five years. This estimation process is facilitated through the utilization of the Expert Modeller forecasting functionality in SPSS.
Since most countries provide data without differentiating between urban and rural coverage, ITU disaggregates the data by subtracting the urban population from the total population with mobile network access to generate the number of people covered by a mobile network in rural areas. The number of people living in rural areas is published by the World Bank. The percentage of the rural population covered by a mobile network (2G/3G/4G/5G and above) is then obtained by dividing the number of rural inhabitants by the total rural population and multiplying by 100. Aggregate values for regions, income groups and other groupings are calculated based on a weighted average of the values for individual countries.
Statistics on Internet use and mobile phone ownership can be derived from household surveys. However, relatively few countries administer such surveys, mainly owing to their cost; accordingly, there are large data gaps. In addition, the delay between the collection of household survey data and their publication can be as much as two years or more, limiting their usefulness for ICT statistics given the rapid pace of technological change.
These shortcomings make it necessary to rely on data modelling tools and/or imputation to estimate missing values, and then use forecasting techniques to estimate the figures for 2023. The models used to estimate these missing values are based on a diverse range of widely available national indicators on mobile-broadband subscriptions, ICT affordability, GNI per capita and so on, and accounting for their changes over time. The data used in the models were also weighted to give proportional influence to each region based on its number of countries.
In addition to official data collected by ITU from the membership, other sources were used to obtain data and/or cross-check estimates, in particular the GSM Association (GSMA) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys. Additional data on socio-demographic characteristics were obtained from the World Bank, UNICEF, the International Labour Organization and the United Nations Population Division.
The official data and estimates were used to calculate aggregate values for regions, income groups and other groupings based on a weighted average of the values for individual countries. Internet use aggregates were weighted by the total population of each economy, while mobile phone ownership aggregates were weighted by the size of the population aged 10 years or older.
Disaggregation of overall values was performed separately. For instance, where official country data on the number of Internet users were only available in aggregate form, comparable economies for which disaggregated data for urban and rural populations are available were used to estimate the missing urban/rural ratio for that country. Existing data on the country’s population size and urbanization were then used to produce separate estimates of the proportion of the population using the Internet in urban and rural areas. Global and regional figures were calculated by weighting the figures for individual countries by the rural and urban population in each country. A similar procedure was used to estimate Internet use by young people and Internet use and mobile phone ownership by gender.
For 2023, forecasting was used to estimate the proportion of individuals using the Internet and owning mobile phones. Forecasts were made at the country level for overall Internet use based on previous growth and historic growth of countries with similar levels of use. For all other indicators, forecasts were produced for regional and global aggregates only, based on previous growth.
The data on subscriptions in 2023 were compiled from publicly available data from regulators and ministries, as well as subscription information published by each country’s main operators. When the data from the main operator of the country was used, the operator-reported number of subscriptions was divided by its market share to obtain the total number of subscriptions in the country for a particular service. In the absence of annual reports, subscription data were estimated from industry analyses, authoritative news articles and operator press releases.
Data from these sources include the absolute number of subscriptions, market shares, penetration and growth rates, which were used to derive the country estimates using the same method as with operator data. In the case of countries for which data were not available either from the national administration or from annual and industry reports, subscriptions data were estimated using univariate time series analyses applied to the data from the last 10 years.
The univariate time series analyses were done by decomposing the time series of penetration data of a particular service to its trend and residual component so as to obtain the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The resulting ARIMA models were used to make the 2023 point prediction for each country and service. Aggregate values for regions, income groups and other groupings were calculated based on a weighted average of the values for individual countries.
ITU collects Internet traffic statistics on fixed and mobile broadband (inside the country) through its annual World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators short and long questionnaires according to the methodology provided in the Handbook for the Collection of Administrative Data on Telecommunications/ICT. Data that are unavailable from the questionnaires are compiled from publicly available sources from regulators and ministries, and from the OECD Broadband statistics. In the absence of such alternative sources, ITU makes estimates relying on modelling tools and imputation to estimate aggregates.
Fixed-broadband Internet traffic estimates are based on the assumption that traffic is a function of technical conditions, moderating factors (quality of connectivity) and economic factors influencing demand. Consequently, models rely on ITU indicators such as fixed-broadband subscriptions (overall and in the speed tier above 100 Mbit/s), the share of individuals and households using the Internet, affordability of the fixed-broadband price basket, average download speeds obtained from Ookla Speedtest data and per capita income obtained from the World Bank.[1]
The linear model selected for Internet traffic estimates for this report was based on data availability and model fit measures. In cases where data was only missing for some of the years, extrapolations were made with the help of changes in average download speeds or exponential smoothing functions.
Traffic estimates have several limitations. First, mobile operators and Internet service providers do not regularly publish traffic statistics, and statistics provided by ministries and regulators often include estimates. While there are some good practices of publishing quarterly data on Internet traffic, only a few sources provide timely data. In addition, the predictive power of the models estimating traffic are lower than for other indicators. Hence, different from the other indicators discussed in the report, the available information did not permit making forecasts for end of year 2023, which is why data are only published until 2022 year-end.
ITU price statistics refer to ICT baskets, which are internationally comparable units of ICT services. The Affordability section above presents medians based on the 188 and 178 economies for which price data were available for both 2022 and 2023 for the data-only mobile-broadband and fixed-broadband baskets, respectively. The data-only mobile broadband basket is defined as the cheapest data-only mobile-broadband subscription available domestically, with a 3G technology or above and a minimum monthly data allowance of 2 GB. The fixed broadband basket is defined as the cheapest fixed Internet subscription available domestically, with a minimum of 5 GB monthly data allowance and an advertised download speed of at least 256 kbit/s.
The 2023 ICT prices refer to retail prices for the basket in effect in June 2023. GNI per capita values were obtained from the World Bank World Development Indicators and refer to the latest available year (2022 or 2021), retrieved in October 2023, or if unavailable, from the United Nations DESA National Accounts Main Aggregates Database. More details on ICT service price data collection rules are available here.
[1] Ookla Speedtest data. Speedtest by Ookla Global Fixed and Mobile Network Performance Maps was accessed in October 2023 from https://registry.opendata.aws/speedtest-global-performance.