New edition of ITU’s flagship global ICT regulatory report
Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2015 tracks increasingly complex
ICT
ecosystem of traditional and new-generation players
Geneva, 17 July, 2015 – The latest edition of ITU’s
comprehensive report on global ICT regulatory developments, Trends in
Telecommunication Reform 2015, reveals a fast-evolving ICT landscape, as devices
and services proliferate, broadband connectivity becomes increasingly pervasive,
and the hyper-connected world of the ‘Internet of Everything’ starts to become a
reality.
The world’s most comprehensive overview of the policy trends and challenges
facing today’s ICT regulators, ITU’s Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2015
provides a host of data and analysis to help regulators, ICT analysts and tech
journalists navigate the issues surrounding so-called ‘fourth-generation’ ICT
regulation.
Characterized by greater complexity and cross-sectoral implications,
fourth-generation regulation attempts to come to grips with the enormous social
and economic disruption ICTs are bringing in their wake. The report recommends
flexible, light-touch regulation, and a recognition of the rights of both
businesses and consumers in defining new frameworks for an emerging global
digital environment.
“There are many ways in which ICTs can make the world a better place,” said
Houlin Zhao, ITU Secretary-General. “In a digital world, creating the conditions
for a data-driven economy to flourish is a must, so getting the regulatory
environment right is absolutely vital.”
To assist ICT regulators and policy makers, ITU has developed the
ICT Regulatory Tracker, a new evidence-based analytical tool to help
pinpoint the strengths and weaknesses of regulatory interventions. As featured
in the report, the Tracker shows that an optimized combination of just a handful
of key regulatory measures is closely associated with a catalytic effect on ICT
market take-up.
The Internet of Things (IoT)
Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2015 confirms that future network traffic
will increasingly be driven by machine-to-machine (M2M) traffic generated by
billions of connected devices, products and sensors, with M2M communications
over mobile cellular networks already emerging as the fastest-growing ICT
service in terms of traffic.
In total, one billion different kinds of wireless IoT devices are expected to
be shipped in 2015, up 60 per cent from 2014 figures to reach a predicted
installed base of 2.8 billion connected devices by end 2015. Wearable devices
are estimated to have reached 109 million by the beginning of 2015.
As many as 25 billion networked devices are predicted to be connected by
2020, driven largely by consumer-connected entities (including businesses,
hospitals, local authorities and other organizations and institutions) and
followed by manufacturing, utilities and transportation. In terms of revenues,
the market for IoT is expected to grow to USD 1.7 trillion by 2019 to become the
largest device market worldwide.
At the device level, demand for tablets is expected to reach 234.5 million
units in 2015. And while global shipments of PCs and laptops is forecast to go
into chronic global decline, analysts predict worldwide sales of up to 1.4
billion smartphones in 2015, exceeding the sales of the PC, television, tablet
and game console sectors combined, in terms of both units and revenues.
For many consumers in developing markets, the Internet will be intrinsically
linked to a smartphone – particularly with strong growth predicted in the
low-cost smartphone segment. Strong growth in IoT deployment will also put new
pressure on network infrastructure development, which is already facing funding
challenges in many markets.
“This Trends report analyses how the changes that are taking place in the
digital ecosystem are impacting both individual consumers and businesses and
society at large,” said Brahima Sanou, Director of ITU’s Telecommunication
Development Bureau, which produces the annual study. “The report addresses
issues that span the full range of ICT policy-making, and delves into some
important, but challenging, questions.”
The world goes social
The report finds that a proliferation of apps is turning consumers into
digital social consumers, digital communicators and prime agents of change in a
digital transformation that is sweeping the ICT sector.
In January 2015, the number of global active social media accounts reached
over 2.07 billion, with active mobile social accounts representing 81 per cent
of that total. With active social media users spending an average of nearly two
hours 25 minutes per day on social platforms, the economic impact of the time
spent on social media has not been lost on marketers and advertisers.
But while the blurring of lines between the physical and digital world is
creating new economic opportunities, it is also raising a host of new social
questions and challenges for regulators. Consumers are presented with new
opportunities brought about by the greater choice of devices, online services
and applications – but are also more at risk of losing control of their privacy
and personal information. Identifying proactive policy and regulatory measures
in addition to co-regulatory and self-regulatory solutions and initiatives
geared towards educating and empowering consumers is essential to providing
frameworks that will stimulate investment and innovation while at the same time
protecting the rights of all users in an open, transparent and inclusive digital
world.
Data deluge
Every hour of every day, over one hundred million photos are uploaded to
Facebook: every second, one hour’s worth of video footage is uploaded onto
YouTube. Google is estimated to process well over a petabyte of data every
single day – equivalent to 100 times the data stored in the largest library in
the world, the US Library of Congress.
With the cost of computing (both processing and storage) falling and the
speed and ease with which data can be transferred rising with ever-faster
processor speeds, applications that draw on Big Data are proliferating.
Data that cost USD 150,000 to store in 1970 now cost as little as one cent.
Advanced software to aid fast data retrieval, new-breed databases capable of
storing very diverse and unstructured data, and fast-improving sensor technology
are together making it possible to capture ever more aspects of human existence
in digital form – precisely and at low cost.
The report outlines eight principles of Big Data implementation, and
recognizes Big Data’s power as a driver of innovation. But it also warns of the
potential downside to the dramatic increase in the collection and storage of
data, including personal data, and notes that regulators will need to come to
grips fast with both the positive and negative applications in order to maintain
consumer trust.
Trends in Telecommunication Reform 2015 is available in paper, PDF, e-book
and ‘PDF-accessible’ formats. It is the first publication available from the ITU
Bookshop in PDF-accessible format.
Note to Media:
ITU-accredited journalists can obtain a free PDF copy of the Trends in
Telecommunication Report by contacting
pressinfo@itu.int.
For more information contact: